UK residential property transactions dipped in July, a fall that highlights the housing market’s continued vulnerability to economic uncertainty. The latest provisional HMRC figures show that while activity remains ahead of last year on a year-to-date basis, the monthly figures suggest the market is fragile.
An estimated 96,710 residential property transactions completed during the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. This represents a 2% decrease from 98,390 in June and is 1% below the level seen in July 2025.
When the figures are not seasonally adjusted, the data looks slightly different. Non-seasonally adjusted property transactions rose 3% month-on-month to 106,620, which is 5% higher than July of the previous year.
Between April and July, 389,490 non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions were recorded. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the total for the same period reached 393,800, up from 342,900 a year earlier.
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HMRC cautioned that the figures are provisional and subject to revision. The data reflects completed transactions, which typically occur two to four months after an offer is accepted. This makes the report a lagging indicator of current housing market conditions.
Brokers see caution on the ground
The fall in July’s transaction numbers against last year tells us June’s brief improvement hasn’t turned into anything more lasting. This is consistent with the caution being heard from brokers on the ground, who point to a specific group of buyers hesitating to act.
Lower mortgage rates locked in a couple of years ago are still keeping a lot of would-be movers in place. Trading up to a significantly more expensive rate simply doesn’t add up for many households right now. That caution tends to fall hardest on self-employed and specialist borrowers, whose income doesn’t always fit neatly into standard lending criteria. Research by Pepper Money found that 76% of this group believe their employment status makes securing a mortgage harder.
Speculation around the Autumn Budget, and specifically what might happen to stamp duty, is giving buyers another reason to sit tight. Until there is more clarity from government, some of that pent-up demand is likely to stay on the sidelines rather than show up in the transaction figures.
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Looking ahead to autumn and the Budget
July’s small decrease does little to alter the wider picture of a market maintaining its footing through the summer. Following June’s marginal increase, broadly stable transaction levels are characteristic of a period when holidays naturally interrupt activity.
Some households defer decisions until the autumn. In these conditions, local expertise matters more than ever. A quality agent can help sellers distinguish between short-term seasonal noise and the underlying evidence in their area, while bringing the judgement needed to set a credible strategy, handle negotiations constructively and keep a transaction moving when chains become more complex.
HMRC’s completion figures are inherently backward-looking, with many relating to sales agreed several months ago. Tuesday’s Bank of England Money and Credit report will provide a more current indication of momentum through July’s mortgage approvals and lending, particularly as some mortgage rates begin to ease from recent peaks.
Sellers can best capitalise on demand by pricing against current market evidence, not to leave value on the table, but to attract serious buyers, generate competition and achieve the strongest possible result. The appetite to move is certainly there, with data showing that 8% of owner-occupiers in England are planning to move or already doing so. As attention turns to autumn, all eyes will also be on the Budget, with greater clarity around taxation important in giving buyers and sellers the confidence to progress their plans.
